The so-called Verducci Effect – named for SI.com’s Tom Verducci – tracks young pitchers who throw too much, too soon.
Any 25-and-under pitcher whose innings increase by more than 30 from one season to the next is said to be at risk.
In Verducci’s column posted Tuesday, he’s got Homer Bailey among his 10 pitchers at risk in 2010.
Here’s specifically what he said about Homer:
This is probably the most troubling case on this list, if only because there was no reason to lean so hard on Bailey down the stretch. The Reds finished 13 games out. In his last nine starts, Bailey averaged 112 pitches and was given an extra day of rest only twice even as he far exceeded his previous high in innings. The club kept leaning on him because he was pitching well, but to what end?
The thing is … Homer was so money down the stretch in 2009 – the guy allowed a TOTAL of 11 earned runs over his final 9 starts of the season – that I don’t think people gave it much thought. Do you buy it?